Flustered-Pier
0x688f5d93bb6085f29e95a0391528ea3d85d930dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$88.41
Total PnL
$-127.25
Realised
$-6.43
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
116 shares @ 37.4¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.83
$-0.48
- YES
Natural Disaster in 2026?
87 shares @ 48.8¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.24
$-20.29
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
63 shares @ 32.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.06
$-9.17
- YES
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
470 shares @ 7.8¢·now 1.6¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.28
$-29.63
- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
12 shares @ 43.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.08
$-1.92
- YES
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
13 shares @ 45.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.07
$-4.93
- YES
Over $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.85
$-0.15
- YES
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
359 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
150 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during the Signing Ceremony on Wednesday?
9 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-6.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$20.23Feb 5, 19:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$20.23Feb 5, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a hurricane form by May 31?$6.51Jan 31, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$6.51Jan 31, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$9.31Jan 25, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$4.41Jan 25, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$4.90Jan 25, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$31.94Jan 25, 07:07 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$30.31Jan 25, 07:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jan 25, 00:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jan 24, 00:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jan 23, 00:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jan 22, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jan 21, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$34.00Jan 20, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a hurricane form by May 31?$30.40Jan 20, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$23.56Jan 20, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$13.68Jan 20, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$28.42Jan 20, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$43.00Jan 20, 06:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $19.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 10:54 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 5, 19:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".