Alarmed-Hydrocarbon
0x6ae392bdfd142131ece6ae51f5c3441e8e783197
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$68.93
Total PnL
$1.93
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$20.11
$0.11
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
23 shares @ 86.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$18.49
$-1.51
- NO
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
23 shares @ 35.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.31
$3.31
- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 95.5¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.12
$0.12
- NO
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
4 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.04
$0.04
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$8.44May 16, 07:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 11, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$8.02May 10, 11:39 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 10, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?$4.40May 9, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.52May 9, 17:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?$1.05May 9, 06:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 4, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $4.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".