Obvious-Friction
0x6dc379edbe3551ce15a39ec905f590cf87a5de08
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$43.94
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$-84.93
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
80 shares @ 33.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.20
$-1.20
- YES
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?
150 shares @ 18.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.25
$-12.75
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
16 shares @ 6.2¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.38
$0.38
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
27 shares @ 3.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.15
$0.15
- YES
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?
2100 shares @ 76.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
1769 shares @ 86.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?
100 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-67.00
- YES
Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?
86 shares @ 45.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-39.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$8.00May 5, 09:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?$30.00May 1, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?$40.00May 1, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?$70.00May 1, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?$70.00May 1, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$100.00May 1, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$13.57Apr 20, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$2.38Apr 17, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$0.95Apr 14, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$0.23Apr 14, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$0.95Apr 14, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?$19.50Apr 14, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$11.70Apr 14, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$0.13Apr 14, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?$51.80Apr 13, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?$0.79Apr 13, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$26.40Apr 13, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?$33.60Apr 13, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$32.90Apr 13, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?$49.70Apr 13, 02:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $20.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 9, 08:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 5, 09:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".