Tidy-Tinderbox
0x74e68d8fbdc0bab0e004ad529be87981e0b44f6c
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$146.29
Total PnL
$-47.55
Realised
$44.16
Win rate
77%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
36 shares @ 70.8¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.52
$-2.30
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
98 shares @ 11.7¢·now 18.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$17.65
$6.15
- NO
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
239 shares @ 1.7¢·now 6.6¢·exp May 31, 2026$15.76
$11.69
- NO
Will Brann win Norway Eliteserien?
16 shares @ 71.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 20, 2026$13.56
$1.91
- YES
Will Tromsø win Norway Eliteserien?
47 shares @ 10.3¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2026$10.77
$5.93
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
30 shares @ 30.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.55
$-0.45
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
10 shares @ 77.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.25
$-0.45
- YES
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
51 shares @ 13.6¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.86
$-0.06
- YES
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
53 shares @ 10.3¢·now 12.8¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$6.81
$1.30
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
80 shares @ 3.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.04
$1.64
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.75May 18, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sarpsborg 08 win Norway Eliteserien?$0.21May 18, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vålerenga win Norway Eliteserien?$0.26May 18, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lillestrøm win Norway Eliteserien?$3.00May 18, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$1.26May 17, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?$2.90May 17, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?$5.63May 17, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?$5.23May 16, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?$1.97May 16, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$2.53May 16, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$1.50May 16, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$1.57May 15, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$7.70May 15, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$6.00May 15, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$3.00May 15, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$1.40May 15, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$4.54May 14, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$2.40May 13, 11:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?$7.50May 13, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$9.25May 11, 17:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 21:36 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 11:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".