Complex-Childhood

• NO

  ECB rate cut in 2026?

  484 shares @ 46.5¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $426.02

  $200.77

• YES

  Fed rate hike in 2026?

  1114 shares @ 14.4¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026

  $350.86

  $190.37

• NO

  US recession by end of 2026?

  200 shares @ 65.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027

  $146.00

  $16.00

• YES

  Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

  328 shares @ 4.9¢·now 17.6¢·exp Dec 9, 2026

  $57.68

  $41.50

• YES

  Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

  200 shares @ 17.5¢·now 24.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026

  $48.30

  $13.30

• YES

  Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

  100 shares @ 54.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026

  $40.00

  $-14.00

• YES

  Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

  200 shares @ 10.8¢·now 18.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026

  $36.30

  $14.70

• YES

  Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

  150 shares @ 23.8¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $29.25

  $-6.45

• YES

  Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?

  3454 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 11, 2026

  $25.90

  $-32.98

• YES

  Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

  164 shares @ 7.7¢·now 7.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026

  $11.73

  $-0.88

• YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:15 UTC
• YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:13 UTC
• TRADESELLIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$15.00May 16, 15:44 UTC
• TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?$16.00May 16, 15:44 UTC
• TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$24.93May 16, 15:43 UTC
• YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:12 UTC
• YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:11 UTC
• YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:14 UTC
• YIELD$0.00May 13, 00:11 UTC
• TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?$24.00May 12, 17:04 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?$15.00May 12, 17:03 UTC
• TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$21.00May 12, 17:02 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$24.00May 12, 17:00 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$54.00May 12, 16:59 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$17.18May 12, 16:59 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?$1.80May 12, 16:57 UTC
• YIELD$0.00May 12, 00:13 UTC
• YIELD$0.00May 11, 00:13 UTC
• TRADESELLWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?$40.12May 10, 20:54 UTC
• TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$21.33May 10, 20:53 UTC

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