Threadbare-Conception
0x7ee4fe442c5b7fcfbdcad499e3e0de293fdb6832
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$290.25
Realised
$261.07
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
201 shares @ 37.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$166.15
$91.15
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
179 shares @ 84.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$140.18
$-9.82
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
164 shares @ 73.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$129.86
$9.86
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
167 shares @ 60.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$125.83
$25.83
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
170 shares @ 58.8¢·now 70.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$119.73
$19.73
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
128 shares @ 39.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$118.59
$68.59
- NO
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
267 shares @ 45.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.33
$-6.67
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
127 shares @ 79.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.73
$-1.27
- YES
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
150 shares @ 20.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$90.75
$60.75
- YES
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
183 shares @ 41.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp May 21, 2026$64.94
$-10.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.51May 17, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.34May 17, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.15May 17, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.10May 17, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?$12.33May 17, 11:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$309.52May 16, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$144.91May 16, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?$5.24May 15, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?$2.10May 14, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.05May 13, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.02May 13, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.13May 13, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.20May 13, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.10May 13, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.10May 13, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.51May 13, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.13May 13, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.15May 13, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.04May 13, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.15May 13, 03:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 04:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 16:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".