Watchful-Sniffle
0x803418f45dce01482e63b14f5c4166c558737b80
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$100.95
Total PnL
$-864.45
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch?
120 shares @ 55.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$37.80
$-28.20
- NO
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?
43 shares @ 46.1¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$32.52
$12.52
- YES
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?
180 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$28.80
$-1.80
- YES
Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?
7 shares @ 45.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.83
$-1.17
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
1250 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-421.41
- YES
Will lighter perform an airdrop by September 30?
824 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
600 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
400 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
383 shares @ 38.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-146.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?$120.00Apr 4, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$327.69Mar 17, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMPump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?$0.00Feb 28, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$320.10Feb 28, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYOstium FDV above $300M one day after launch?$66.00Feb 7, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYOstium FDV above $700M one day after launch?$30.60Feb 5, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYOstium FDV above $500M one day after launch?$3.00Feb 5, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coingecko be acquired in 2026?$20.00Feb 5, 18:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?$1.84Jan 30, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMLighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$50.00Jan 30, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?$463.64Jan 30, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?$605.45Jan 30, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?$0.05Dec 22, 19:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?$1.00Dec 15, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?$15.20Dec 11, 06:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?$1.00Dec 11, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?$28.50Dec 9, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: December$20.00Dec 7, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?$600.00Dec 7, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?$450.62Dec 7, 15:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $65.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 1, 12:37 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 4, 04:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".