Costly-Birch
0x83663086125ebb9c9a15a2796b66e4d26c2824fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$53.24
Total PnL
$-7.33
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
11 shares @ 93.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$9.82
$-0.79
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$9.29
$-0.43
- NO
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 91.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.19
$-0.79
- NO
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
8 shares @ 90.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp May 19, 2026$8.13
$0.60
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
8 shares @ 92.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$8.01
$0.49
- YES
Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark?
6 shares @ 94.0¢·now 90.8¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$5.46
$-0.20
- NO
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$4.32
$-6.23
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSeattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever$8.86May 18, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rickie Fowler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?$3.11May 17, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever$7.58May 17, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$7.56May 17, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rickie Fowler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?$1.30May 16, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rickie Fowler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?$1.61May 16, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$7.52May 16, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.41May 15, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Xi hug at their summit?$2.06May 15, 06:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?$7.92May 15, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.27May 14, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi hug at their summit?$1.90May 13, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?$3.83May 13, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.65May 13, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?$2.16May 13, 23:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$7.81May 13, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$10.28May 11, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$7.29May 11, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?$5.08May 8, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?$3.88May 8, 17:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 15:32 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".