Dramatic-Payoff
0x83845944d15bcb68be57fa0768b434011885ce88
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$34.46
Total PnL
$-4.23
Realised
$-0.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
16 shares @ 97.4¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will Chung Il-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
10 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$10.29
$0.29
- NO
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.52
$-0.02
- NO
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.60
$-0.01
- NO
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?$16.03May 18, 10:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill 2025 be the hottest year on record?$1.01May 18, 10:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?$3.57May 18, 10:13 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$11.36May 18, 10:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Nov 21, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by October 31?$2.17Nov 20, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$258.70Nov 20, 08:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Nov 20, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chung Il-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$10.00Nov 19, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?$2.00Nov 19, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$264.50Nov 19, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$284.30Nov 19, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$286.20Nov 19, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$10.00Nov 19, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?$2.00Nov 19, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.00Sep 27, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by October 31?$1.00Sep 27, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?$1.00Sep 27, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2025 be the hottest year on record?$1.00Sep 27, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alassane Ouattara win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election?$2.76Sep 27, 10:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $34.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 8, 01:53 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 10:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".