Agreeable-Birth
0x84c386331355f47057afca0c06c7211f4dbe35d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.1K
Total PnL
$-139.03
Realised
$35.33
Win rate
54%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 44.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$854.66
$410.26
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
999 shares @ 58.2¢·now 24.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$244.78
$-336.56
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
218 shares @ 82.9¢·now 83.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$181.69
$0.92
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
177 shares @ 92.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$160.19
$-3.21
- NO
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
143 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$133.17
$-0.90
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
231 shares @ 58.2¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$132.75
$-1.69
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
128 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$127.95
$8.83
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
201 shares @ 45.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$127.63
$35.57
- NO
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
129 shares @ 94.8¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$122.49
$0.16
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
128 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$120.96
$3.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump Insult Xi this week?$0.00May 18, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)$0.75May 18, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)$0.56May 18, 06:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$0.00May 18, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$4.18May 18, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?$1.01May 18, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17?$17.52May 18, 02:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 18, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17?$0.00May 17, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?$204.40May 17, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 17?$159.11May 17, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 17?$185.01May 17, 21:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 17?$156.19May 17, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?$0.05May 17, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.14May 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.04May 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.17May 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.04May 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.17May 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.04May 17, 16:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 04:01 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".