Embellished-Nougat
0x857fdd45b3b9bf70b2f677ad456a88bbc422039f
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$831.71
Total PnL
$-11.7K
Realised
$25.09
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
764 shares @ 30.1¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$271.26
$41.26
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
146 shares @ 89.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp May 27, 2026$120.51
$-9.49
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
303 shares @ 33.0¢·now 35.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.12
$7.12
- NO
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
131 shares @ 61.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$81.97
$1.97
- YES
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
417 shares @ 12.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp May 27, 2026$72.92
$22.92
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
400 shares @ 15.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$42.00
$-18.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30?
250 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$35.00
$-5.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by May 31?
500 shares @ 8.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$32.50
$-7.50
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
601 shares @ 20.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.02
$-92.98
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
500 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.50
$-17.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$96.49May 17, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$38.61May 16, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$29.17May 16, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$10.40May 16, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$45.82May 16, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$3.15May 16, 19:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 16, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?$80.00May 14, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$10.50May 14, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$52.18May 14, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?$31.43May 12, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Armenia win Eurovision 2026?$5.25May 12, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?$5.25May 12, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Poland win Eurovision 2026?$5.25May 12, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Poland win Eurovision 2026?$10.50May 12, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$100.00May 10, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by May 15?$112.03May 9, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$236.43May 9, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$309.53May 4, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$62.09May 3, 21:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $71.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 20:56 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 10:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".