Insubstantial-Carrot
0x86e9fd3c9ec210c4e53b12f2189339c80a8ff028
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-30.92
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1510 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.5K
$-0.75
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
136 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$117.95
$-2.05
- YES
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
126 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$114.12
$-0.63
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
27 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$26.73
$1.23
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
27 shares @ 92.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$24.70
$-0.66
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?
24 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$21.64
$-0.36
- YES
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
20 shares @ 82.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$15.89
$-0.71
- NO
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
73 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
25 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$17.79May 18, 01:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.14May 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?$115.16May 17, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$120.58May 17, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.5KMay 17, 02:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1.6KMay 17, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$10.16May 17, 02:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?$125.26May 17, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?$120.00May 14, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1.6KMay 14, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$19.02May 11, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$14.16May 11, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?$22.07May 11, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$15.41May 11, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?$29.58May 11, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?$1.00May 2, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLCerebras IPO before 2027?$14.29May 2, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$15.01Apr 30, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?$21.24Apr 30, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$22.11Apr 30, 12:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $140.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 05:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 01:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".