Yellow-Warmth
0x8859b37cba475184ca073febac74c15c89bf22c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$556.06
Total PnL
$242.73
Realised
$3.81
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
375 shares @ 53.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$358.58
$159.58
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
200 shares @ 51.5¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$183.99
$81.00
- YES
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?
217 shares @ 6.6¢·now 5.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.35
$-1.90
- NO
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.13
$0.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$519.99May 16, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?$20.00May 15, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$10.00May 15, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.89May 15, 09:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$3.64May 15, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMEpstein suicide note released by May 8?$17.92May 15, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$95.70May 13, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$2.10May 13, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by May 15?$100.00May 13, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$6.00May 13, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?$18.20May 12, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$113.58May 11, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$70.01May 11, 04:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?$200.00May 9, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$97.20May 9, 15:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?$112.40May 8, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYEpstein suicide note released by May 8?$15.72May 8, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$17.24May 7, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?$13.69May 7, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?$71.20May 7, 16:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $42.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 17:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 07:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".