Realistic-Payoff
0x88fe0cb92deca0c8460b313ab4aad55f0c02f516
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-6.8K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
2189 shares @ 91.3¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.2K
$155.44
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
784 shares @ 63.8¢·now 35.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$279.83
$-220.17
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
185 shares @ 54.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$56.48
$-43.52
- NO
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
2490 shares @ 82.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.1K
- KHAMZAT CHIMAEV
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
835 shares @ 82.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-690.97
- NO
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
769 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-600.00
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
641 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- TATE
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor
624 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-524.21
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
544 shares @ 94.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-515.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Trump" during events with Polish president on September 3?
480 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$101.84May 15, 09:54 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$16.34May 15, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$40.00May 15, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$10.58May 15, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$25.00May 15, 00:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 15, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$5.00May 14, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$10.00May 14, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$1.53May 14, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$2.04May 14, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$5.42May 14, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$183.86May 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 14, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$353.68May 14, 00:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$43.24May 11, 02:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $104.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".