Arctic-Thesis
0x8c7ccf2835f01e1ce32f03ab1478e9106b711439
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-133.76
Realised
$14.73
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
618 shares @ 89.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$571.83
$17.32
- NO
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
179 shares @ 70.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$104.91
$-20.62
- NO
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
222 shares @ 87.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$92.22
$-101.11
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
44 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$41.11
$1.11
- NO
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?
116 shares @ 33.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$38.89
$0.63
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
378 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$28.33
$-13.22
- NO
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
17 shares @ 93.7¢·now 99.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.50
$0.88
- YES
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?
22 shares @ 53.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.22
$3.44
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
13 shares @ 88.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.44
$0.32
- NO
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
10 shares @ 24.6¢·now 98.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.85
$7.38
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Shifters qualify for EWC 2026?$4.23May 18, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Team Vitality qualify for EWC 2026?$9.78May 18, 03:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$0.00May 18, 01:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.06May 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elche CF win on 2026-05-17?$0.00May 17, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?$0.00May 17, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$15.22May 17, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$17.17May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.64May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$19.23May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$3.25May 17, 18:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $9.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 22:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 03:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".