Short-Term-Urn
0x8ce8eeac50fe41b037d79b8632c44251638ffa08
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$70.94
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
776 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$741.16
$27.16
- NO
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
749 shares @ 80.1¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$610.70
$10.70
- NO
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
410 shares @ 93.3¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$391.79
$9.79
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
356 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp May 31, 2026$338.31
$18.31
- NO
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
351 shares @ 85.5¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$304.96
$4.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$320.00May 1, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?$322.13May 1, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$714.00Apr 11, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?$300.00Apr 11, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$1.0KApr 11, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? $382.00Apr 10, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$381.66Apr 10, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$914.00Mar 21, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$914.42Mar 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?$0.00Mar 21, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$889.00Mar 13, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?$888.47Mar 10, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?$777.00Mar 3, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?$770.10Mar 3, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?$430.00Mar 2, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?$437.36Mar 2, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?$202.00Mar 1, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?$430.00Mar 1, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$363.93Mar 1, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?$600.00Feb 27, 08:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $451.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 7, 13:33 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 16:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".