Serious-Shoemaker
0x997d116630ec7575f81798bf6267096801de5d15
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$101.8K
Total PnL
$8.5K
Realised
$1.7K
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
42000 shares @ 92.2¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.0K
$265.48
- YES
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
20000 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$20.0K
$1.1K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
11477 shares @ 89.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.0K
$711.17
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
10000 shares @ 73.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.6K
$1.3K
- NO
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
6446 shares @ 89.8¢·now 91.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.9K
$98.27
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
5176 shares @ 85.8¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.8K
$361.54
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5000 shares @ 66.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.1K
$825.00
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
2000 shares @ 65.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$309.99
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
1553 shares @ 85.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$86.19
- NO
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
2000 shares @ 60.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp May 26, 2026$1.3K
$70.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$7.29May 15, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$3.48May 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$199.59May 14, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.66May 14, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.02May 14, 09:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$30.78May 14, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$83.68May 14, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.10May 14, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$50.62May 14, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$37.57May 14, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?$23.55May 14, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?$64.71May 14, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?$3.36May 14, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.39May 14, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?$45.73May 14, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.27May 14, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.32May 14, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?$12.73May 14, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?$11.20May 14, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?$29.17May 14, 03:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $66.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 03:16 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".