Vague-Fairness
0x9b47e92a71395c03cef0cf273d35ec2279ae9930
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$689.91
Total PnL
$-385.05
Realised
$-171.29
Win rate
48%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
447 shares @ 73.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$386.65
$60.34
- NO
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?
409 shares @ 31.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$155.42
$28.63
- NO
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
141 shares @ 68.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.64
$7.75
- NO
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
24 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$23.92
$0.88
- YES
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
90 shares @ 17.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.55
$-6.75
- YES
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
24 shares @ 62.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.25
$-8.65
- YES
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?
63 shares @ 16.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.59
$-7.41
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.3¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.91
$0.01
- YES
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
106 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.58
$-0.12
- YES
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
1 shares @ 8.0¢·now 50.8¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.51
$0.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?$126.79Apr 24, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marta Barbará as Kaoruko Waguri (The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Castilian Spanish) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?$437.34Apr 21, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$15.93Apr 21, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$86.13Apr 21, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$68.85Apr 21, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$334.90Apr 11, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$30.60Apr 11, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$365.50Apr 11, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLFed emergency rate cut before 2027?$1.40Apr 9, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$161.88Apr 9, 09:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$202.92Apr 9, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$164.58Apr 8, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marta Barbará as Kaoruko Waguri (The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Castilian Spanish) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?$520.08Apr 8, 02:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah disarm by March 31?$100.00Apr 7, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$289.34Mar 31, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-04-18?$140.04Mar 30, 17:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$11.25Mar 30, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$6.00Mar 30, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026$137.70Mar 30, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$231.84Mar 30, 05:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $182.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 11:45 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 24, 03:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".