Close-Analogy
0x9b95ffa9cbdd5a53fdcff8193cdfe28da995a426
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-159.22
Realised
$6.08
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
1034 shares @ 18.2¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$160.23
$-27.93
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
285 shares @ 68.4¢·now 55.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$156.61
$-38.26
- NO
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
200 shares @ 61.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$151.00
$29.00
- NO
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?
253 shares @ 39.9¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.54
$44.60
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
1264 shares @ 6.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$69.52
$-13.32
- YES
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
174 shares @ 52.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.53
$-27.79
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
96 shares @ 60.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$58.96
$1.44
- NO
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
97 shares @ 65.7¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$52.54
$-11.37
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
300 shares @ 16.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.50
$4.50
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
441 shares @ 12.1¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$48.52
$-4.72
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?$73.31May 16, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMChatGPT Outage by May 1?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?$0.00May 15, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?$80.00May 15, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$20.33May 15, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$21.38May 14, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?$2.61May 14, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$19.77May 14, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?$20.31May 14, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?$48.77May 13, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?$47.56May 13, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?$98.30May 13, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$45.02May 12, 12:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $27.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 07:28 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 16:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".