Probable-Hypothesis
0xa3543673b381e00303b5c15d6cd0d9455d1a22eb
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-497.50
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- YES
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
400 shares @ 77.5¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$298.00
$-12.00
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30 2026?
213 shares @ 70.4¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$208.62
$58.62
- NO
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?
201 shares @ 82.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$172.88
$7.97
- NO
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?
124 shares @ 80.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$119.89
$19.89
- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
63 shares @ 79.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$62.63
$12.63
- NO
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?
93 shares @ 53.8¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$59.54
$9.54
- NO
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?
57 shares @ 87.4¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$53.35
$3.35
- NO
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
56 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$51.44
$1.44
- NO
Will Hylo launch a token by June 30, 2026?
57 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$50.28
$0.28
- NO
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?
58 shares @ 52.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$50.23
$20.23
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.40May 17, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?$19.92May 17, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$36.62May 17, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$18.27May 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$12.51May 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$5.40May 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$5.40May 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$12.27May 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?$99.90May 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16?$99.90May 17, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$32.16May 17, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$5.53May 17, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$1.79May 17, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?$26.75May 17, 00:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?$11.66May 16, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?$3.00May 16, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?$10.00May 16, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?$5.00May 16, 16:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $48.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 01:29 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".