Pale-Chronograph
0xa408ecf7297bb8277f4ad1de57e2d67a86ee3dc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-221.75
Realised
$14.23
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
455 shares @ 41.7¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$188.98
$-1.02
- YES
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
77 shares @ 84.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$66.52
$1.19
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
82 shares @ 66.7¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$56.51
$1.51
- YES
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?
54 shares @ 93.4¢·now 95.7¢·exp May 30, 2026$51.22
$1.22
- YES
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
60 shares @ 83.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp May 25, 2026$49.70
$-0.30
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
60 shares @ 67.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$45.07
$5.07
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
45 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$42.05
$2.05
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
108 shares @ 37.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.62
$1.62
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
43 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.08
$1.08
- YES
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?
43 shares @ 93.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 30, 2026$40.57
$0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$37.21May 18, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$36.63May 18, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$35.25May 11, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$21.68May 11, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?$30.00May 11, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?$20.00May 11, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$30.42May 9, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$20.00May 7, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$30.00May 7, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Peter Taylor win the 2026 Watford mayoral election?$42.49May 7, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral election?$55.29May 7, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.48May 6, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$40.91May 6, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$50.34May 6, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$40.00May 5, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$40.00May 5, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$40.00May 5, 08:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$22.09May 5, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?$32.56May 5, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$22.97May 5, 08:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $37.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 07:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 07:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".