Carefree-Ale
0xa43da0aab839cf651a70e0e310462bb53a3b00f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$13.2K
Total PnL
$-355.86
Realised
$12.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
16229 shares @ 34.2¢·now 31.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.1K
$-408.03
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2439 shares @ 90.8¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$50.01
- NO
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
4199 shares @ 40.4¢·now 48.5¢·exp May 20, 2026$2.0K
$339.58
- YES
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
2210 shares @ 56.6¢·now 55.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$1.2K
$-34.96
- YES
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
1829 shares @ 56.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$1.1K
$82.29
- YES
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
1405 shares @ 43.7¢·now 43.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$611.17
$-3.11
- NO
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
455 shares @ 47.5¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$337.03
$120.48
- YES
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
333 shares @ 71.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$256.40
$19.98
- YES
Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
663 shares @ 12.1¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$102.77
$22.77
- YES
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
5250 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$65.62
$-81.38
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$1.2KMay 18, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$4.20May 18, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$619.52May 18, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$4.20May 18, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$32.79May 18, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$116.38May 18, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$52.67May 18, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$800.00May 18, 01:57 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.20May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$76.37May 17, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.23May 17, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.56May 17, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$186.00May 17, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$2.89May 17, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.71May 17, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.59May 17, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$2.72May 17, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$2.50May 17, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.06May 17, 12:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.79May 17, 12:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $76.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 15:50 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 03:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".