Arctic-Kickoff
0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$200.7K
Total PnL
$9.6K
Realised
$14.4K
Win rate
59%
175 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
17568 shares @ 86.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.8K
$1.5K
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?
13293 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$13.3K
$6.65
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
9387 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$9.2K
$155.20
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9899 shares @ 92.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.2K
$13.26
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
8067 shares @ 97.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$8.0K
$87.28
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
7888 shares @ 92.1¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.3K
$58.79
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
6084 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$6.1K
$56.34
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
6414 shares @ 88.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.0K
$322.85
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
5830 shares @ 87.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.5K
$414.84
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
5100 shares @ 90.6¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$5.1K
$447.34
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship?$55.81May 18, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?$9.05May 18, 03:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "No Kit" be said during the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Finals?$18.99May 18, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?$11.20May 18, 03:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?$123.00May 18, 03:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?$70.17May 18, 03:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?$31.47May 18, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?$20.53May 18, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship?$5.00May 18, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship?$6.25May 18, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ben Griffin win the 2026 PGA Championship?$8.58May 18, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?$11.33May 18, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?$10.06May 18, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYModi out by December 31, 2026?$5.89May 18, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$307.45May 18, 03:04 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?$2.22May 18, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship?$39.58May 18, 02:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?$3.78May 18, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.32May 18, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Lorient win on 2026-05-17?$26.79May 18, 02:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $23.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 23:29 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 03:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 175 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".