Capital-Refectory
0xa7a3d4efc03aab43fc0b05d906ae98d9aed67739
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$-7.2K
Realised
$263.73
Win rate
58%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1000 shares @ 47.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$684.86
$210.36
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
700 shares @ 71.1¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$654.50
$156.50
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4000 shares @ 10.4¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$499.98
$84.08
- NO
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
654 shares @ 68.4¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$487.13
$39.73
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
401 shares @ 78.6¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$242.60
$-72.63
- NO
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
105 shares @ 71.6¢·now 58.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$61.42
$-13.77
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 26.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$37.30
$-14.70
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
40 shares @ 80.5¢·now 91.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.64
$4.44
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 16.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$33.30
$32.15
- NO
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
33 shares @ 41.4¢·now 99.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.61
$18.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02May 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?$23.49May 16, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?$3.51May 16, 14:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 13, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$9.37May 12, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$1.88May 12, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$6.66May 12, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$5.34May 12, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$4.77May 12, 12:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 12, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by May 15?$14.41May 11, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$18.00May 11, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?$30.00May 11, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$0.05May 11, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$8.90May 11, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$0.51May 11, 16:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $15.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 03:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".