Cold-Hay
0xa8c3baa7a95a0e998942cd54106c86a7c6a97dd2
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-1.4K
Win rate
32%
94 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
258 shares @ 84.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$233.56
$15.09
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
599 shares @ 70.6¢·now 30.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$180.57
$-242.52
- NO
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026?
201 shares @ 56.1¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$177.62
$65.09
- NO
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?
193 shares @ 80.1¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$165.39
$10.35
- NO
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
200 shares @ 62.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$153.07
$27.90
- NO
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?
162 shares @ 64.7¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$125.19
$20.63
- NO
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?
103 shares @ 84.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.47
$7.09
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
179 shares @ 45.5¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.38
$-24.98
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
60 shares @ 78.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$55.26
$7.98
- NO
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
59 shares @ 75.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.31
$1.77
Recent activity
- REDEEMCerebras IPO before 2027?$40.54May 16, 13:58 UTC
- REDEEMGensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?$0.51Apr 30, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMGensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?$0.65Apr 30, 23:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$0.17Apr 29, 21:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$0.96Apr 29, 21:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?$1.02Apr 27, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?$11.80Apr 27, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?$4.99Apr 27, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?$20.97Apr 27, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUY9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$10.89Apr 24, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be a QB? $0.00Apr 24, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?$63.42Apr 23, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMUSD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?$0.71Apr 22, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUY9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$0.51Apr 22, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMTim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?$2.54Apr 20, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUY9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$1.20Apr 19, 20:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?$1.19Apr 15, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?$0.82Apr 15, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?$22.06Apr 15, 06:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $17.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 4, 11:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 13:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 94 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".