Natural-Vacation
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$221.7K
Total PnL
$-88.4K
Realised
$667.84
Win rate
67%
123 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
13807 shares @ 90.8¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.8K
$277.41
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
8054 shares @ 85.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.4K
$557.93
- NO
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
7400 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.2¢·exp May 15, 2026$7.3K
$207.14
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
7704 shares @ 83.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.7K
$220.48
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
7275 shares @ 88.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.6K
$134.02
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
7153 shares @ 87.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.5K
$292.20
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
10065 shares @ 64.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.4K
$-126.25
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
6873 shares @ 76.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$5.9K
$697.97
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
7913 shares @ 60.5¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.5K
$671.53
- NO
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
5522 shares @ 89.5¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.2K
$301.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$300.00May 18, 05:15 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.94May 18, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.97May 18, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$19.03May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$89.68May 17, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 21?$820.00May 17, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 21?$840.00May 17, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$1.3KMay 17, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$89.87May 17, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$1.3KMay 17, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$23.77May 17, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$133.94May 17, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$461.79May 17, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$148.46May 17, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$1.3KMay 17, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$13.71May 17, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5?$200.76May 17, 19:43 UTC
- MERGEWill Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?$1.06May 17, 19:22 UTC
- MERGEWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.5KMay 17, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$960.00May 17, 17:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $266.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 11:37 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 123 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".