Probable-Shot
0xad4234f35f30071e5495778a9a5520de0944fe63
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$922.21
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-905.94
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
91062 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$682.97
$-764.10
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
79699 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$199.25
$-396.11
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$40.00
$-22.13
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
81602 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?
1100 shares @ 22.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-251.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$4.21May 12, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.28May 12, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.33May 12, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.22May 12, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.06May 12, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.18May 12, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.08May 12, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.26May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.77May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.01May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.11May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.28May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$2.04May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$1.48May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$1.11May 12, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.55May 12, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.28May 12, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.06May 12, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.06May 12, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$0.15May 12, 18:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 12:38 UTC
- Last active
- May 12, 22:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".