Graceful-Crowd
0xadc9473c1d3a36940941565523dd2e42237f5856
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-150.74
Realised
$78.42
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
420 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$420.00
$121.80
- NO
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?
303 shares @ 50.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$203.01
$51.51
- NO
TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026?
152 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$152.00
$68.40
- YES
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
133 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$133.00
$109.06
- YES
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
115 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$115.00
$72.45
- NO
Will FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?
55 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$55.00
$16.50
- NO
Remote IPO before 2027?
41 shares @ 85.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.34
$-4.51
- YES
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
415 shares @ 26.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$22.62
$-85.28
- YES
Over $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
20 shares @ 71.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.70
$-2.50
- YES
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
10 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.00
$2.70
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?$114.12Apr 21, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$15.96Apr 21, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?$115.34Feb 8, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?$136.51Feb 8, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$17.76Feb 8, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLInsurrection Act invoked by March 31?$6.00Feb 8, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Elon Musk by March 31?$1.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?$4.42Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by December 31?$34.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2025?$64.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMOver $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?$131.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?$133.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?$150.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Blue Prince win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?$153.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trae Young be traded this season?$205.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?$197.65Jan 11, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLCerebras IPO before 2027?$52.80Jan 11, 19:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$33.32Jan 11, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$156.52Jan 11, 17:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$223.60Jan 11, 17:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $103.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 00:25 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 10:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".