Assured-Gale
0xae7c98235d5dc797edfa3d3af2e0334238a4487e
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$132.3K
Total PnL
$-89.6K
Realised
$21.8K
Win rate
42%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100000 shares @ 27.1¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.5K
$3.4K
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
428740 shares @ 6.3¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.3K
$-7.6K
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
330433 shares @ 9.5¢·now 4.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$15.4K
$-15.9K
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
116900 shares @ 10.2¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.1K
$-815.26
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
25661 shares @ 39.6¢·now 40.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$10.4K
$241.31
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
30000 shares @ 52.6¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.2K
$-5.6K
- NO
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
9000 shares @ 25.2¢·now 72.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.5K
$4.3K
- YES
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
41069 shares @ 13.7¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.3K
$-2.3K
- YES
Iran leadership change by May 31?
49912 shares @ 30.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.2K
$-12.0K
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
17000 shares @ 19.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.0K
$-255.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?$13.23May 17, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?$460.71May 17, 07:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.79May 17, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$5.08May 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?$36.00May 16, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?$558.51May 16, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?$460.03May 16, 13:24 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?$159.99May 16, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$166.32May 16, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$1.07May 16, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$13.94May 16, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$0.73May 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$1.00May 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$18.50May 16, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$18.50May 16, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 21?$700.00May 16, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$0.59May 16, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$18.50May 16, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$16.14May 16, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$542.78May 16, 08:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $163.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 13:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 09:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".