Flawed-Onset
0xaf1ab41ff1e24bdb38608b1549d83533f823845d
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$67.68
Total PnL
$-14.08
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
45 shares @ 44.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$15.68
$-4.32
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$10.51
$0.51
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15 shares @ 67.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.22
$0.22
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 38.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.72
$0.72
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
5 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.15
$0.15
- NO
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.14
$0.14
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
26 shares @ 18.9¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.93
$-0.07
- YES
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
16 shares @ 31.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.55
$-0.31
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
13 shares @ 40.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.88
$-1.13
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
71 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.04
$-0.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$20.45May 14, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$2.00May 3, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$2.30May 3, 16:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?$11.37May 3, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$0.14Apr 26, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.12Apr 26, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?$10.00Apr 23, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?$2.00Apr 23, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$5.00Apr 23, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$2.00Apr 23, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$3.00Apr 23, 07:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.52Apr 22, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.00Apr 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$5.00Apr 22, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?$5.00Apr 22, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$3.00Apr 22, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.00Apr 21, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$5.00Apr 21, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$10.00Apr 21, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$1.00Apr 21, 18:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $4.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 18:34 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 16:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".