Phony-Temporariness
0xafea94994576b7b70a073bae207a3130a80a230b
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-32.78
Realised
$51.07
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?
268 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$268.00
$37.52
- YES
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
265 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$265.00
$71.55
- NO
Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
266 shares @ 45.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$239.40
$119.70
- NO
Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?
233 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$233.00
$44.27
- NO
Will the US strike Syria next?
231 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$230.75
$62.30
- NO
Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
90 shares @ 31.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$62.09
$34.19
- YES
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
12 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$12.00
$3.12
- NO
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
3 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$3.00
$1.08
- YES
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 22.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.00
$0.78
- NO
Will Trump say "Border" while addressing the nation on December 17?
853 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-93.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$48.19Feb 8, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$149.31Feb 8, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$169.06Feb 8, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$83.16Feb 8, 11:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$86.94Feb 8, 11:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?$12.00Jan 12, 19:22 UTC
- REDEEMOver $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?$350.00Jan 12, 19:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 9, 2026?$393.00Jan 12, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$9.66Jan 11, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$73.83Jan 11, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$42.09Jan 11, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?$3.82Jan 11, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$230.48Jan 11, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$64.26Jan 11, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Syria next?$168.45Jan 11, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$258.06Jan 11, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Harbaugh join the New York Giants prior to April 23, 2026?$33.64Jan 11, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$188.73Jan 11, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$113.76Jan 11, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYCerebras IPO before 2027?$193.45Jan 11, 01:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $96.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 12:01 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 8, 15:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".