Ill-Informed-Kielbasa
0xb3be134e850f73e34f4295a71a61d54e51c31015
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
81
Open notional
$483.50
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
431 shares @ 55.7¢·now 64.5¢·exp May 25, 2026$278.06
$38.06
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
74 shares @ 68.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$68.01
$18.01
- NO
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?
63 shares @ 79.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$50.95
$0.95
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
68 shares @ 45.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.79
$-3.71
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$21.84
$11.84
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
56 shares @ 17.8¢·now 18.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$10.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
60 shares @ 16.7¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
192 shares @ 5.2¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.90
$-0.10
- YES
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
44 shares @ 34.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.72
$-7.28
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
1377 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.25May 17, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.25May 17, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.28May 16, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?$50.42May 10, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$50.00May 10, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$52.63May 10, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$10.24May 9, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?$41.03May 4, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?$10.15Apr 30, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?$10.00Apr 28, 10:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5PM ET$0.00Apr 28, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?$100.00Apr 27, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?$100.00Apr 17, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?$14.23Apr 17, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?$10.00Apr 12, 13:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?$9.77Apr 8, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?$27.39Apr 8, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?$10.00Apr 7, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?$10.00Apr 7, 07:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $23.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 15:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".