Half-Thrift
0xb4d7e65d51c1f3a7951c84f0f9b7bed7e939f73a
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$80.32
Total PnL
$-125.76
Realised
$1.91
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
85 shares @ 11.7¢·now 39.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.83
$23.88
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?
5023 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$15.07
$-118.25
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026?
126 shares @ 3.0¢·now 9.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.84
$8.06
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
500 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.50
$0.00
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?
92 shares @ 10.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.19
$-5.57
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
486 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.89
$-5.83
- YES
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?
239 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$3.35May 10, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.08May 8, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.46May 7, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.28May 7, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.69May 5, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.48May 5, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.58May 4, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.46May 4, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.18May 4, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.68May 4, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$1.82May 4, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$1.17May 3, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$1.28May 3, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.21Apr 16, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$10.00Apr 16, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.10Apr 15, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.10Apr 15, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$1.15Apr 12, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.42Apr 10, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$0.77Apr 8, 12:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $0.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 10:03 UTC
- Last active
- May 10, 05:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".