Troubled-Administration
0xb4e09d812e074c6f1d7f6ce340d0cefc83312979
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$24.28
Total PnL
$-4.49
Realised
$0.23
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
26 shares @ 38.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$10.92
$0.92
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
12 shares @ 43.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.55
$-1.45
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
6 shares @ 54.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.36
$0.36
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.24
$-0.76
- YES
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6 shares @ 17.3¢·now 16.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.91
$-0.09
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.91
$-0.09
- YES
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
6 shares @ 34.7¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.81
$-1.19
- YES
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.33
$-0.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$2.00Apr 27, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.99Apr 27, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$2.00Apr 27, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.05Apr 27, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$3.26Apr 17, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before 2027?$2.00Apr 17, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?$1.22Apr 17, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.23Apr 15, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?$0.09Apr 13, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$9.64Apr 13, 22:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$4.52Apr 13, 22:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?$3.07Apr 13, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?$1.00Apr 12, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?$1.00Apr 12, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$3.00Apr 12, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$10.00Apr 12, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.95Apr 12, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$0.38Apr 12, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.00Apr 12, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$5.00Apr 12, 03:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 06:46 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 01:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".