Polished-Capon
0xb6dbf1048369442838778853373de8c9beef51e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$57.15
Total PnL
$-317.14
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
1270 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$57.15
$-158.74
- YES
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
200 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-82.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
100 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-44.00
- YES
Will Trump say "UFC" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
75 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during the State of the Union address?
60 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-8.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.83Mar 4, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$61.45Mar 3, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.20Mar 3, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.87Mar 3, 05:33 UTC
- REWARD$0.18Mar 3, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.85Mar 2, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.51Mar 2, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.70Mar 2, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.70Mar 2, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$51.00Mar 1, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.85Mar 1, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.85Mar 1, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.52Mar 1, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.20Feb 28, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.20Feb 28, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.36Feb 28, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.47Feb 28, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$1.02Feb 28, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$8.50Feb 28, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$8.50Feb 28, 08:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $10.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 22:45 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 11:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".