Threadbare-Signal
0xb886580698ede4b18de3e446b2d8da8bcedd81b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
155
Open notional
$162.9K
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$6.2K
Win rate
92%
101 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 155- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
461670 shares @ 8.3¢·now 7.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.4K
$-3.9K
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
77682 shares @ 29.4¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.7K
$840.28
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
40355 shares @ 28.9¢·now 45.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.2K
$6.5K
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
28829 shares @ 37.1¢·now 38.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.0K
$251.45
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
39895 shares @ 20.8¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.0K
$693.61
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
50052 shares @ 17.7¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$8.3K
$-590.16
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
62220 shares @ 8.9¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.2K
$1.6K
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
42100 shares @ 13.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.6K
$-1.9K
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
73364 shares @ 5.3¢·now 4.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.3K
$-629.10
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
24238 shares @ 14.2¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.3K
$-174.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.20May 18, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$0.10May 18, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$5.54May 18, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$0.11May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$3.99May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.17May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.96May 18, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$0.61May 18, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.91May 18, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$22.90May 18, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$0.31May 18, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$22.58May 18, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$4.17May 18, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$7.63May 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$7.53May 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$0.54May 18, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$2.75May 18, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.55May 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.46May 18, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$0.38May 18, 04:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $21.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 03:34 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 101 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".