Improbable-Hire
0xbc3107551d71e0fe3821b4ec4bb2767d313e971f
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
145
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-27.4K
Realised
$40.69
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 145- ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
2483 shares @ 51.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.0K
$-223.51
- YES
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
73444 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$624.28
$-36.72
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5400 shares @ 5.5¢·now 6.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$337.50
$40.50
- YES
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
12611 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$220.70
$-57.42
- SEATTLE MARINERS
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
4679 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.6K
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
4100 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.50
- NEW YORK YANKEES
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
3800 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.1K
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
2922 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-81.97
- ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
2648 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?
1987 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-161.93
Recent activity
- REDEEMLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels$1.8KMay 18, 03:58 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.36May 18, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.13May 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins$214.16May 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins$45.29May 17, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins$118.90May 17, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$117.30May 17, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$12.99May 17, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$0.35May 17, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$52.49May 17, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$0.33May 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$0.33May 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$7.50May 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals$6.82May 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels$1.0KMay 17, 19:31 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels$499.99May 17, 05:10 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox$200.00May 17, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. New York Mets$158.85May 17, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.13May 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves$281.50May 17, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $227.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 21:38 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 03:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".