Extra-Large-Incandescence
0xc115985a2ec1a736a5b8212a6ad41c5568ba7b4a
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$373.03
Total PnL
$-131.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
127 shares @ 79.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.57
$-4.43
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
81 shares @ 62.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$60.48
$10.48
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
64 shares @ 78.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$58.65
$8.65
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
172 shares @ 29.0¢·now 30.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$52.24
$2.24
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
55 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$51.37
$1.37
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
72 shares @ 69.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$37.32
$-12.68
- YES
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?
139 shares @ 35.9¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$17.39
$-32.61
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
527 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
72 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$54.95May 16, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$62.50May 16, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$102.35May 6, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$100.00May 5, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$50.00May 3, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$50.00May 2, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?$50.00May 2, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$50.00May 2, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$50.00May 2, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$100.00May 2, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$50.00May 1, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$50.00May 1, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$50.00May 1, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?$5.00May 1, 19:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?$8.57Apr 26, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$0.00Apr 13, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?$2.82Apr 13, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?$2.0KApr 12, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?$2.0KApr 11, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$82.14Apr 7, 23:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.0K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 22:36 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 06:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".