Hopeful-Grandpa
0xc4acaad07023340eca1ebfcde66015e936b3b1e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$11.3K
Total PnL
$-18.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4200 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.2K
$-2.10
- NO
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3580 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.5K
$-1.79
- NO
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3522 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.5K
$-1.76
- NO
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
31 shares @ 97.5¢·now 96.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$29.75
$-0.25
- NO
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
22 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$20.00
$0.00
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
15 shares @ 98.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.93
$-0.07
- NO
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?
16 shares @ 94.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.60
$-0.40
- NO
Netanyahu out by May 31?
12 shares @ 96.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp May 31, 2026$12.33
$0.33
- NO
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
12 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$12.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?
10 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$10.24
$0.24
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.17May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 17?$12.02May 17, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 17?$3.01May 17, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 17?$20.00May 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$10.01May 17, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$6.00May 17, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$12.00May 17, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$20.06May 17, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.2KMay 17, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$3.5KMay 17, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.9KMay 17, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$5.34May 17, 11:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$12.04May 17, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.9KMay 17, 07:03 UTC
- YIELD$1.24May 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.14May 16, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMBordeaux: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Quentin Halys$18.68May 15, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$30.03May 15, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?$9.01May 15, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.9KMay 15, 10:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $1.7K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 09:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".