Happy-Parchment
0xc5c9f4e998ddeb0818ebf735f8f8b85417b98faf
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$597.35
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
490 shares @ 32.3¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.25
$22.91
- YES
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
200 shares @ 28.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$171.00
$115.00
- YES
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
939 shares @ 23.8¢·now 13.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$126.31
$-96.93
- YES
Natural Disaster in 2026?
200 shares @ 28.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.00
$0.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
500 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.75
$-30.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?
17 shares @ 28.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$17.14
$12.34
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
225 shares @ 8.9¢·now 7.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.04
$-3.95
- NO
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
10 shares @ 92.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.85
$0.58
- NO
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
207251 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-784.03
- YES
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
1650 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-23.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$35.00May 17, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$4.60May 15, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?$5.15May 15, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?$4.97May 15, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$2.28May 15, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$7.55May 15, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$3.82May 15, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$5.00May 15, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$7.63May 14, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$5.00May 14, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be between 90 and 95?$5.25May 14, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$20.91May 7, 20:10 UTC
- REWARD$2.09May 4, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.09Apr 29, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.23Apr 28, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.09Apr 26, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.31Apr 25, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$0.47Apr 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$135.13Apr 24, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$8.84Apr 24, 14:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $14.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 00:28 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 03:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".