Substantial-Coupon
0xc615d34879c57eef6ab81cf8f6e3d239eae7e982
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$86.1K
Total PnL
$-15.1K
Realised
$-433.51
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Trump out as President by June 30?
59987 shares @ 94.4¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$59.2K
$2.5K
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
141093 shares @ 17.7¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.2K
$-15.8K
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
8796 shares @ 76.3¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.4K
$1.6K
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
10348 shares @ 44.5¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.5K
$-1.1K
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
10544 shares @ 23.9¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$-672.41
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30?
10052 shares @ 27.5¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.4K
$-1.4K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
10000 shares @ 11.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$50.00
- YES
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
7953 shares @ 9.8¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$835.11
$53.25
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
1002 shares @ 66.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$691.48
$29.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$111.11May 17, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$44.44May 16, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$200.00May 16, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$0.11May 16, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$100.00May 16, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$670.51May 15, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$1.00May 15, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$0.49May 15, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$205.06May 15, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$90.00May 15, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$29.67May 14, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$1.1KMay 13, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$10.9KMay 9, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?$5.3KApr 30, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$241.92Apr 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$119.50Apr 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$265.52Apr 28, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$47.61Apr 28, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$233.13Apr 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$363.02Apr 28, 14:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $859.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 08:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 19:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".