Spirited-Bid
0xc71b43cf1a6c9f79743bdf5e15a763d93d7ce265
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$15.32
Win rate
58%
109 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?
203 shares @ 62.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$120.61
$-5.09
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the OH-08 House seat?
473 shares @ 19.5¢·now 19.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$89.79
$-2.47
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
222 shares @ 44.1¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$81.00
$-16.91
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
800 shares @ 8.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$76.00
$8.00
- YES
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
144 shares @ 45.3¢·now 44.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$63.48
$-1.89
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
397 shares @ 19.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$61.56
$-13.90
- YES
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?
813 shares @ 9.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$60.95
$-13.38
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
200 shares @ 29.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$56.98
$-1.02
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 19.3¢·now 13.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$54.00
$-23.00
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
200 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?$37.75May 18, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?$3.28May 18, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLAndy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?$0.99May 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYDOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?$0.02May 18, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYDOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?$0.13May 18, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYDOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?$1.45May 18, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May?$3.30May 18, 05:45 UTC
- TRADESELLLai Ching-te impeached by June 30?$0.23May 18, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$45.00May 18, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? $8.20May 18, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? $8.80May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLByteDance IPO before 2027?$0.57May 18, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?$16.00May 18, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$17.34May 18, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$0.45May 18, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$0.32May 18, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.07May 18, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.37May 18, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$0.18May 18, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?$0.64May 18, 04:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 01:01 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 109 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".