Monthly-Paranoia
0xc85d1d1546d6bc6e107674c41e5f6ba1a3cb18b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$6.2K
Total PnL
$92.89
Realised
$95.99
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
2133 shares @ 81.4¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$-8.23
- NO
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
1311 shares @ 78.6¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$4.47
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
878 shares @ 81.2¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$759.10
$46.14
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
530 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$484.95
$2.65
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
425 shares @ 97.2¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$419.26
$6.29
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
282 shares @ 89.8¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$249.55
$-3.59
- NO
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
220 shares @ 84.6¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.77
$-2.45
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
201 shares @ 84.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.67
$12.17
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
190 shares @ 87.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$170.37
$3.45
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?
161 shares @ 93.3¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$149.48
$-0.52
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05May 18, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$0.14May 17, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$37.61May 17, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$4.95May 17, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$17.72May 17, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$17.72May 17, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$398.32May 17, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$418.20May 17, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$159.33May 17, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$20.34May 17, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$23.13May 17, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by June 30?$137.05May 17, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$79.66May 17, 16:10 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$147.60May 17, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$79.66May 17, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$20.34May 17, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$11.85May 17, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$11.85May 17, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by June 30?$137.05May 17, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$39.83May 17, 16:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $72.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 09:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".