Careful-Hamburger
0xc98e5a80eefada49e960e65a5486f8cb65eaf0e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
48
Open notional
$539.61
Total PnL
$-739.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
136 shares @ 66.2¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$86.32
$-3.68
- YES
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
94 shares @ 74.7¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$69.79
$-0.21
- YES
Kash Patel out by December 31?
78 shares @ 77.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.82
$-8.18
- YES
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
114 shares @ 38.8¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$38.75
$-5.45
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
45 shares @ 67.3¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.73
$0.73
- YES
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
56 shares @ 71.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$24.23
$-15.77
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
51 shares @ 39.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$22.82
$2.82
- YES
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
33 shares @ 60.8¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.55
$0.55
- NO
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
46 shares @ 64.8¢·now 42.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.44
$-10.56
- YES
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
37 shares @ 54.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.78
$-2.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$25.88May 17, 00:07 UTC
- REDEEMConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$32.26May 16, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?$3.20May 15, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?$30.70May 12, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?$33.73May 11, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?$28.68May 11, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$40.98May 11, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$10.34May 10, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?$10.00May 10, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$46.31May 10, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$2.00May 10, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$26.24May 10, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$7.38May 10, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$8.20May 10, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$75.00May 10, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$74.63May 10, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8?$52.98May 8, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?$53.72May 8, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on May 6?$2.40May 6, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6?$62.78May 6, 13:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $29.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 12:19 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 00:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".