Fumbling-Fiesta
0xcb992beddc290938bf4841b309940a84d80115d6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$575.75
Total PnL
$84.13
Realised
$18.86
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.15
$48.15
- YES
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2143 shares @ 1.4¢·now 3.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$69.64
$39.64
- NO
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
60 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$59.25
$0.51
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
57 shares @ 88.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$53.01
$2.85
- YES
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 60.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$45.75
$15.75
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
49 shares @ 28.3¢·now 66.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$32.54
$18.67
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
50 shares @ 53.9¢·now 64.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.17
$5.24
- NO
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
33 shares @ 95.8¢·now 90.8¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$29.96
$-1.65
- YES
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.00
$9.00
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
50 shares @ 51.2¢·now 51.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$25.57
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $250M one day after launch?$0.99May 18, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$34.59May 18, 02:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?$200.20May 17, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $250M one day after launch?$18.97May 17, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?$200.00May 17, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?$101.00May 16, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?$100.04May 16, 12:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 16, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15?$52.13May 15, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15?$49.99May 15, 04:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 15, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$63.37May 14, 10:14 UTC
- REDEEMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$0.00May 14, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$0.00May 14, 10:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 14, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$104.81May 14, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$100.00May 14, 00:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 13, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $39.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 03:30 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 10:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".