Near-Experimentation
0xcd8a4848266b3330540d1213eb896e394f142765
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$536.04
Total PnL
$-119.89
Realised
$0.28
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will George Walsh be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?
42 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$39.16
$0.00
- NO
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
41 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$38.57
$0.20
- YES
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings?
41 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$38.36
$0.00
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?
41 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$35.30
$0.20
- NO
Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?
41 shares @ 88.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$34.48
$-1.43
- NO
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
41 shares @ 91.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$34.48
$-2.93
- NO
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?
42 shares @ 96.0¢·now 77.8¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$32.39
$-7.60
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
36 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$31.84
$-0.18
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
34 shares @ 88.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$28.29
$-1.35
- NO
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
30 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$27.17
$-0.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?$0.00May 17, 06:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$39.08May 17, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$10.39May 17, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election?$41.26May 16, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?$36.89May 14, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?$7.68May 13, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?$34.47May 13, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$39.64May 13, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$30.58May 12, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodez AF achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?$27.21May 12, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$39.23May 12, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$40.79May 10, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?$34.52May 10, 06:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship?$39.29May 10, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$0.00May 9, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026?$38.97May 9, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?$26.57May 9, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves $26.88May 9, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship?$38.24May 8, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?$40.77May 8, 16:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $34.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 07:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 06:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".