Puzzled-Bed
0xce345e9a8fe52affa9492c04f353ce206f51ce40
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$254.30
Total PnL
$-63.92
Realised
$38.49
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
683 shares @ 18.2¢·now 31.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$215.47
$91.00
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
81 shares @ 24.6¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.03
$-4.97
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
141 shares @ 7.1¢·now 5.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$7.25
$-2.75
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
21 shares @ 35.0¢·now 24.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.02
$-2.20
- YES
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
516 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.87
$-5.23
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
49 shares @ 10.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.20
$-1.72
- YES
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
72 shares @ 2.8¢·now 3.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.24
$0.24
- YES
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
24 shares @ 13.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.55
$-1.63
- YES
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.52
$-0.48
- YES
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
21 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.15
$-1.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$25.19May 15, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10.37May 15, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$35.71May 15, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$25.81Mar 25, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$5.00Mar 25, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?$10.00Mar 25, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?$5.00Mar 25, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?$2.57Feb 10, 04:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMInternet access restored in Iran by Friday?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMBill Clinton charged by January 31?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMVenezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?$0.00Feb 3, 11:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $8.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 22:19 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 11:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".