Subtle-Carving
0xce36b8fedcac9b02bee7a4e63c483875625748ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$150.94
Total PnL
$-502.48
Realised
$21.52
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 20.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$105.00
$5.00
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
360 shares @ 19.4¢·now 7.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.84
$-43.16
- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
185 shares @ 27.0¢·now 6.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.13
$-37.87
- YES
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
157 shares @ 6.4¢·now 4.5¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$6.98
$-3.02
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
865 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-17.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
210 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-13.98
- YES
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?
111 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-49.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
67 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$10.37May 16, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$103.20May 16, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$1.86May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$1.97May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$2.29May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$2.74May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$3.29May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$3.94May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$3.96May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$9.27May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$10.65May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$11.78May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$12.93May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$13.90May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$15.30May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$16.13May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$18.65May 16, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$24.10May 16, 16:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $56.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".