Cold-Discrepancy
0xcf1db405a65802d65411c85e0ea5c7d585398471
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$578.03
Total PnL
$-818.83
Realised
$3.77
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
579 shares @ 51.3¢·now 51.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$296.22
$-0.89
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
794 shares @ 32.7¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$194.51
$-64.94
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
647 shares @ 33.4¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$87.31
$-128.69
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
1056 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025?
868 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
746 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-16.42
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?
689 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-85.78
- YES
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?
531 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
506 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-51.94
- YES
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
500 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-17.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$297.11Apr 8, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?$72.56Jan 4, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?$84.00Jan 4, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?$43.44Dec 28, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLLighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$83.04Dec 24, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?$35.00Dec 24, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?$100.00Dec 24, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$209.74Dec 24, 21:13 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?$199.99Dec 3, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$139.35Nov 28, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$85.52Nov 18, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?$85.52Nov 18, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?$140.45Nov 11, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 8-11?$20.00Nov 10, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 8-11?$40.00Nov 10, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Nigeria by December 31?$33.90Nov 10, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India"?$40.00Nov 10, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Government shutdown end by November 15?$206.54Nov 10, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end by November 15?$195.44Nov 10, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?$195.44Nov 10, 17:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $73.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 2, 23:13 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 22:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".