Polite-Shrine
0xd1bf6d7a83cb85cc1239440dd8d4f494457ae1b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$13.42
Total PnL
$-96.09
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?
128 shares @ 3.9¢·now 8.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$10.69
$5.69
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
135 shares @ 3.7¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.95
$-3.05
- YES
Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
221 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.77
$-4.23
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
1558 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-65.51
- YES
Will Jeff Criswell win the GA-14 special election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
856 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?
845 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be between 1,750,000 and 2,000,000 voters?
297 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 85% and 90%?
246 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Obi Toppin win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?
205 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?$1.00Mar 15, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeff Criswell win the GA-14 special election?$1.00Mar 15, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?$1.00Mar 15, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernard Arnault be 2nd richest person on March 31?$1.00Mar 15, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 85% and 90%?$5.00Mar 15, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?$5.00Mar 15, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?$5.00Mar 15, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?$5.00Mar 15, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be between 1,750,000 and 2,000,000 voters?$5.00Mar 15, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$2.55Mar 14, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$1.78Mar 14, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$5.00Mar 13, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$5.00Mar 13, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$5.00Mar 13, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$5.00Mar 13, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Obi Toppin win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?$5.00Mar 13, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$33.51Oct 27, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?$4.64Oct 27, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?$4.50Oct 27, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?$24.38Oct 27, 19:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $10.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 20, 17:14 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 15, 02:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".